Page 249 - Saginaw FY19 Annual Budget

CITY OF SAGINAW

LONG RANGE FINANCIAL FORECAST

The long range financial forecast is for the General and the Debt Service Funds. The five year forecast
is a planning tool and projects revenues and expenses with the following assumptions:

Adoption of the roll back tax rate each year calculated at 5% instead of 8%.

Increase in taxable value of 10% for FY19/20, 7% for FY20/21, 5% for FY21/22, and 3% for FY22/23.

Assumes Miller Milling abatement begins in FY19/20 and Horizon abatement expires.

New construction valuation is $29M for two more years then declines to $15M.

The sales tax is projected to grow by 2% for the next four years.

For other taxes no projected increase other than 4% annual growth in mixed beverage tax and a
decrease in delinquent tax collections.

Franchise Fees include a projected increase of 3% for utilities and a 20% decrease in cable for the
next four years. Waste disposal includes a 2% increase for the next four years.

Court fines and fees assumes a gradual increase to historical amounts. Recreation fees will increase
1% per year. Building permits at current level through FY19/20 then will drop by 50%.

Other revenue and grant assistance an increase each year for reimbursement of personnel costs
related to School Resource Officers.

Transfers from other funds assumes a 3% increase each year to reimburse the General Fund for
operating costs incurred on behalf of the Enterprise, Drainage, and CCPD Funds. Assumes a decrease
in reimbursement (50% to 25%) for SRO beginning in FY20/21 from CCPD.

Personnel Services assumes a 3% increase annually for salary and related benefits. A full year of the
TMRS benefits increase is included for FY19/20. No additional positions are included.

Supplies and Services includes a 3% increase for most line items.

Capital Outlay is based on departmental five year plans and a replacement contribution.

Restricted Resources are 25% of the operating budget each year. Reserved Resources are set aside
for the possible increased cost of a capital project.

Debt Service expense reflects the current debt model with some capacity to issue up to $5 million in
more debt with no increase in debt service payments. A possible bond election is not factored in to the
assumptions.

The tax rate for FY18/19 is 47.18 cents. Projected tax rates based on the above assumptions are:
44.69 cents in FY19/20, 43.48 cents in FY20/21, 41.80 cents in FY21/22, and 41.78 cents in FY22/23.

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