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Long Range Projections

Assumptions

· Population Growth: Fort Worth’s population is touted as one of the fastest growing in the nation.
Residential and commercial growth are incorporated into each projection, from planning and developing,
to providing services and infrastructure to accommodate such growth, as well as the revenue return to
the City.
· Revenues: All areas of revenue are assessed for growth, the pause or expansion of services, and economic
conditions expected for the City.
· Rate Increases: The projections shown here do not include rate adjustments or increases.
· Capital Infrastructure: The City is always planning ahead for these capital needs. Infrastructure can include
new facilities, the expansion of facilities, roadway improvements, etc. Since infrastructure is a primary
driver of bonded debt, a bond election is held typically every 4 years. When the City plans for bond
implementation, additional operating and maintenance dollars are assessed alongside the capital funding
to ensure the City maintains not only existing infrastructure but the new infrastructure being completed
as well. The City funds capital through operating funds as well, which is referred to as Pay-as-you-go
(Paygo). These paygo funds are included in each fund’s operating budget as a transfer out, and you will
also find the long term paygo plan in the 5-year CIP. Each operating estimate associated with a capital
project is identified in the 5-year CIP and is also included in the operating fund’s projections.
· Prior Year Commitments:
­ Wages increases are a key item included in projections to ensure appropriate coverage for Police’s
meet and confer agreement, Fire’s Collective Bargaining agreement, and general employee pay
per performances increases.
­ Long Term Liabilities such as pension obligations and other benefits are captured under prior year
commitments.
­ Mayor & Council (M&C) Supplemental Appropriations increase annual budgets each year. If any
of these M&C’s require additional maintenance funding, such as mowing for added parkland,
assumptions include these adds.
­ Contractual changes are captured to as prior year commitments to ensure the continuation of
services.
· Debt Capacity: Debt capacity and finance planning include the scheduled issuance of bonds, revenue
growth, and the debt obligations that accompany these large financing undertakings. For the general debt
fund, this projection of capacity is closely interlaced with the general fund; as it affects the overall property
tax rate.
· Financial Policy: While projecting fund activity, the ending fund balance of each fund is evaluated, to
ensure compliance with internal fund balance reserve requirements. Each requirement is set to maintain
sufficient health of the fund. If ever a fund is projecting to be insufficient, it is more closely evaluated so
that remediation can occur to mitigate any deficits. Fund balance or net position may also include
restricted equity, such as in the case of Solid Waste, which includes restricted cash set aside for the post
closure costs of the City landfill.

As you can see, there are many variables that affect projecting revenues and expenses in City funds for future
years. In addition to developing these long range financial outlooks, each year the City undergoes two formal
forecasting exercises, which help identify any key variances that need to be addressed in the current year, but
also provide insight into how future resources and use of funding may evolve. For example; if a fund projects a
deficit in a future year, this planning process allows adequate time to develop a solution prior to a defict actually
occurring. No fund is allowed to consume resources that are not available.

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