Page 97 - Benbrook FY2021

Population Projections

The population projections, based on the 2010 Census counts and data from the North Central Texas Council of Governments, used for both
revenue and expenditure projections in the Long-Range Financial Forecast are provided below:

2016-17…………………….22,260

2017-18…………………….22,629

2018-19…………………….22,760

2019-20…………………….23,260

2020-21…………………….23,378

2021-22…………………….24,257

2022-23…………………….24,422

2023-24…………………….24,587

2024-25…………………….24,823

GENERAL FUND

As previously stated, one of the methods used to project operating expenditures is to develop separate inflation rates for a variety of line item
expenditures. The inflation rate is then applied to the projected expenditures. The flaw in this approach to forecasting is that expenditures are
often forecast before they occur and consequently the ending fund balances may be artificially reduced. The City applies a second expenditure
forecasting method of using per capita expenditures applied to the projected population estimates. The major drawback to this approach is
using past trends, that may or may not be reliable, to predict the future. This methodology does produce relatively consistent computations, in
that the City's per capita spending has remained constant over the past ten years. When either of these two methods does produce numbers
that are inconsistent with the forecast, the City Staff uses expert judgment to establish projected expenditure levels.

The forecast is predicated on the following expenditure assumptions for the General Fund:

1) City services, programs, and the number of employees remain at the level presented in the 2020-21 Budget.
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